Suchergebnisse

Ce travail examine les effets du terrorisme sur la croissance économique en Inde. En utilisant un modèle de Markov à changement de régime, on trouve des preuves que le terrorisme a des effets importants et négatifs sur la croissance économique de l'Inde. Nos résultats empiriques montrent aussi que l'ampleur de ces effets est plus grande dans des périodes de haute croissance économique. Enfin, nous comparons l'ampleur des effets de « brutalité » et de « fréquence » des attaques terroristes et nous concluons que l'effet de « fréquence » est légèrement plus élevé que l'effet de « brutalité ». JEL Classification: C32, E2.

AbstractWe investigate the effects of various tax policy innovations on stock market returns. By using a vector autoregressive model that controls for the mutual causality between fiscal policy and financial market performance, we test whether financial markets serve as a transmission mechanism for tax policy innovations. Our findings indicate that indirect taxes have a larger effect on market returns than do labor taxes. Further, corporate tax innovations do not have any statistically significant effect on stock returns. We consider that this finding is a result of a firm's ability to switch between equity financing and bond financing.

Abstract
By utilizing a novel data set of 24 democracies for the 1972–2018 period, we investigate how election outcomes, including election surprises, are priced by the stock market. We show that an election surprise increases volatility but has no significant effect on excess returns. A win by a coalition announced prior to the election decreases volatility, however, a large winning percentage for the lead party within the coalition decreases excess returns. An unexpected winning margin over the closest competitor by the lead party decreases volatility by consolidating power, but only in parliamentary elections. Party orientation for the winning party affects neither excess returns nor volatility, even if it is unexpected.